Sunday, March 31, 2019

Is Mexico Safe For Canadians and Americans?

Manuel is twitchy. He wears jeans, a heavy black hoodie and a knitted balaclava over his face. He fiddles with his gun, pulling it out of his waistband, yanking the clip from the magazine and then snapping it back into place, before eventually tucking it under his thigh.

Manuel — not his real name — sits in an upscale apartment in Playa del Carmen but far from the tourist strip, on Mexico’s Caribbean coast. He has two bodyguards, both armed and masked. One has an assault rifle slung across his chest. The other has a gun at his hip, butted up against his cartel-issued walkie-talkie.

W5 confirmed with credible sources that Manuel is who he claims to be: a Mexican narco, a cartel member, in charge of the local drug trafficking cell of the world’s most powerful gang: the Sinaloa Cartel. Its leader, Joaquin (El Chapo) Guzman, was recently convicted of federal drug trafficking charges in the United States and faces life in prison.

The rare television interview is granted on the condition Manuel’s face not be seen and his real name not be known. He offers disturbing insight into the unprecedented wave of cartel violence that has recently washed over the muchloved Canadian tourist hotspots of Playa del Carmen and Cancun.

“There is no order,” Manuel says. “In the northern part of Mexico there is order. Over here there’s no order. It’s easy to invade the enemy’s territory if they are divided. But it doesn’t mean that the cartel is weakened. Just that everyone is fighting in their own block.”

The “block” has never been so bloody. The murder rate in Quintana Roo state, which encompasses Playa del Carmen and Cancun, has increased by 335 per cent in the last two years. There were an astounding 840 murders in 2018, despite a population of just 1.5 million people. It’s a rate so high it can be counted by the hour: someone is murdered in this region every 10 hours.

“It’s a jungle,” says Manuel. “Jungle enemies that with one opportunity kill each other without a doubt, (like) a lion and a hyena.”
Manuel claims his cartel career began as a low-level “sicario” — an executioner. So good at killing, he rose through the ranks and is now in charge of the local drug trade, fuelled by tourists. He also claims responsibility for transporting up to 300 kilograms of cocaine every month through the Mayan Riviera and up to the United States border, some finding its way to Canada. The Rand Drug Policy Research Center estimates Mexico’s drug trade is worth $10 billion (Canadian) a year.
Manuel speaks in near-perfect English. He rifles through his wallet and produces a tattered photo of a soldier in uniform. Using his thumb to obscure the face, he shows the picture as proof that he lived for some time in the U.S. and claims that he did two tours in Afghanistan with the American military, training that prepared him for his current life.
“It helps you to recruit, to train and to kill,” Manuel says. “The only way to maintain a cartel is by order. Now how do you maintain order? OK, if you don’t obey, I’ll f---ing kill you and your whole f---ing family. There’s no other way.”
The cartel landscape in the Mayan Riviera is a labyrinth of shifting allegiances and fluctuating control. Los Zetas cartel used to rule Playa del Carmen and Cancun with relative stability. But now the Sinaloa and Gulf cartels are battling for power and the bodies have been piling up.
Added to this volatile mix, the fastest growing and most violent group: the New Generation Jalisco cartel, which has a grotesque trademark of torture and dismemberment.
“If one organization doesn’t prevail,” says Valentin Pereda, a doctoral candidate at the University of Toronto’s Centre for Criminology, “violence can continue to go up and we could see a scenario potentially like the one that Mexico experienced in Acapulco.”
For generations, Acapulco, on Mexico’s west coast, was a magnet for the rich and famous, a major port of call for cruise ships, a jetsetter’s paradise. The beach resort town is now a no-go zone. It is one of the most dangerous cities in the world. It is one of the most dangerous cities in the world.
The U.S. government has a “do not travel” advisory in place for Acapulco. The Canadian government has a warning to avoid “all non-essential travel” to the region.
Unlike Acapulco, the violence in the Mayan Riviera doesn’t usually bleed into the tourist zones, but the cartel code against targeting tourists is tenuous.
“Have you ever been close to a firefight?” Manuel asks, while sitting in the apartment, which is a narco safe house. “You’re not going to live by those rules. People get shot. We have enemies that are willing to kill us in plain view. He’s not going to care and I’m not going to care.”
Those “rules” were broken in 2017 at a Canadian-run music festival, called BMP, that had been operating in Playa del Carmen for a decade.
On the final night of the event, armed gunmen stormed the tourist festival at The Blue Parrot Club and opened fire on the crowd of thousands. By the time it was over, five people were dead, including a Hamilton bouncer named Kirk Wilson, who was hired to protect the partygoers.
Pereda believes that the Canadian organizers either didn’t pay protection money or paid the wrong cartel. A narco banner, erected the day after the shooting, supported his theory.
“These organizations have tried not to hurt tourists,” says Pereda, who has been studying the increasingly barbaric cartel violence for five years. “But they don’t really care that much when it comes to using violence.
“If a tourist gets caught in the crossfire, they’re not going to care.”
The Canadian government warns Canadians to exercise a “high degree of caution” when travelling to Mexico, and the latest travel advisory specifically mentions increased violence in Quintana Roo.
Although tourists aren’t targeted, the statement says, “drug cartels are very active. Foreigners may be in the wrong place at the wrong time and could become victims of violent crime. Remain vigilant.”
Canadians have not been scared off by either the government warning or the skyrocketing murder rate. Two million Canadians visit Mexico every year. The Mayan Riviera recorded an 8-per-cent increase in the number of Canadian visitors in 2018, compared with 2017.
“If I go to any big city in any other country, there is crime,” says Lizzie Cole, head of the Quintana Roo State Tourism Board.
“Most of our visitors come here and stay within their resorts, go out on excursions and go out partying at night and they’re absolutely safe. The incidents that we have are very targeted and … not in the areas where tourists go.”
The entire country of Mexico is struggling with cartel violence. A record 33,000 homicides were investigated in 2018. Newly sworn-in President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was elected on a promise he would regain control from the cartels and end corruption. Within months of taking office, the president announced the creation of a new National Guard. Made up of federal police, the army and the navy, the force is expected to number 150,000 by the end of the year.
The level of corruption is so deep inside the government and the police, says Manuel, the Sinaloa member, that he doubts the cartels will be affected.
“People are always willing to take money from us,” he says. “Always. And if they don’t take it, they’re scared to say no. So basically they just work with us.”
On the beaches and streets of Playa del Carmen and Cancun, the juxtaposition of heavily armed soldiers patrolling alongside bikini-clad vacationers is jarring, but the mission is clear: protect tourists.
Little is being done, however, for those most affected by the cartel crisis. The locals who pour the drinks, set up the beach chairs and sell tourist trinkets must navigate home at the end of their shifts to neighbourhoods now transformed into battlegrounds.
There is little hope for change from this reality, where the cartel’s quest for control has few boundaries.
“If I (came) from your country maybe I would have hope. Maybe I wouldn’t want to throw it away,” says Manuel. “But my country is thrown away. And I was born in this. I didn’t make it.

“There is going to be a day where I’m old enough to get out of this. But not right now. I can’t.” W5’s investigation into drug violence in Mexico — The Narco Riviera — airs Saturday at 7 p.m. on CTV.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Trump Recession?





                                                         https://youtu.be/yv_LzyF__Js

Trump Tump Trump or Betelgeuse Betelgeuse Betelgeuse

Trump Affect Has Topped In The Markets. Trump or .Recession Looming?



The stock market tumbled Friday as investors digested an ominous warning sign: Interest rates on long-term government debt fell below the rate on short-term bills. That's often a signal that a recession is on the horizon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 460 points Friday, or about 1.8 percent. The broader S&P 500 index fell 1.9 percent.
Ordinarily, the yield on long-term debt is higher, just as 10-year certificates of deposit tend to pay higher interest rates than three-month CDs.
Bond watchers get nervous when that typical pattern is turned on its head.
"We don't see that occur that often, but when it does, it's almost always bad news," said Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University.
That's why warning lights started flashing Friday morning when the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped below that of the three-month bill. The last time that happened was just before the Great Recession.
Harvey has been keeping a close eye on these rare, "inverted" yield curves for more than 30 years and treats them as a kind of early warning signal.
"My indicator has successfully predicted four of the last four recessions," he said, "including a pretty important call before the global financial crisis."
Harvey won't actually forecast a recession unless the yield curve stays inverted for at least three months. But even a flat curve — in which long-term yields are just slightly above short-term yields — could be an indicator the economy is losing steam.




"It might be that we dodge a recession, but the economic growth will be lower — much lower," Harvey said.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve lowered its own forecast of economic growth, to just over 2 percent for the year and signaled that it was unlikely to raise interest rates in 2019.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said slowing growth in China and Europe present "headwinds" for the U.S. economy. And ongoing trade disputes are not helping. "There's a fair amount of uncertainty," Powell said.
The unemployment rate is at a low 3.8 percent, but the economy added only 20,000 jobs in February. That was far fewer than projected by economists and the smallest gain since September 2017.

Monday, March 18, 2019

A Damaged Soul and a Disordered Personality Trump’s continuing attacks on John McCain reveal a worrisome state of mind.

It doesn’t take a person with an advanced degree in psychology to see Trump’s narcissism and lack of empathy, his vindictiveness and pathological lying, his impulsivity and callousness, his inability to be guided by norms, or his shamelessness and dehumanization of those who do not abide his wishes. His condition is getting worse, not better—and there are now fewer people in the administration able to contain the president and act as a check on his worst impulses.
This constellation of characteristics would be worrisome in a banker or a high-school teacher, in an aircraft machinist or a warehouse manager, in a gas-station attendant or a truck driver. To have them define the personality of an American president is downright alarming.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/03/trump-tweets-attack-john-mccain/585193/?utm_medium=offsite&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=newsstand-ideas


And especially this one


President donald trump’s decision to brag in a tweet about the size of his “nuclear button” compared with North Korea’s was widely condemned as bellicose and reckless. The comments are also part of a larger pattern of odd and often alarming behavior for a person in the nation’s highest office.
Trump’s grandiosity and impulsivity have made him a constant subject of speculation among those concerned with his mental health. But after more than a year of talking to doctors and researchers about whether and how the cognitive sciences could offer a lens to explain Trump’s behavior, I’ve come to believe there should be a role for professional evaluation beyond speculating from afar.

I’m not alone. Viewers of Trump’s recent speeches have begun noticing minor abnormalities in his movements. In November, he used his free hand to steady a small Fiji bottle as he brought it to his mouth. Onlookers described the movement as “awkward” and made jokes about hand size. Some called out Trump for doing the exact thing he had mocked Senator Marco Rubio for during the presidential primary—conspicuously drinking water during a speech.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/01/trump-cog-decline/548759/

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